* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972018 10/06/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 47 51 54 52 50 48 49 42 V (KT) LAND 30 27 27 27 27 30 34 37 35 33 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 27 27 27 27 30 33 35 35 34 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 6 9 14 18 27 18 31 30 33 39 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -1 0 -1 2 -3 0 -1 0 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 39 26 355 1 360 339 344 301 300 273 244 221 207 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.1 29.5 28.9 28.1 28.5 28.6 28.7 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 159 159 159 157 162 157 149 152 152 154 66 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -52.9 -53.5 -53.8 -52.9 -53.2 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 5 5 8 7 9 8 7 4 6 1 700-500 MB RH 80 78 77 76 74 72 72 70 70 71 75 63 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 85 88 85 70 76 73 96 78 32 26 99 113 200 MB DIV 78 94 118 109 96 62 79 55 27 43 40 71 90 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 2 2 9 22 30 38 29 18 20 -14 LAND (KM) 0 -44 -78 -119 -134 24 307 70 127 53 -189 -513 -534 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.5 16.1 18.5 22.0 25.9 29.3 32.2 35.1 38.3 LONG(DEG W) 88.6 88.6 88.2 87.5 86.8 85.2 83.6 82.6 83.1 84.9 86.4 85.8 81.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 6 8 9 12 17 20 19 18 14 18 25 HEAT CONTENT 20 38 37 9 37 36 81 82 36 32 3 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 0. -7. -14. -21. -26. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 21. 24. 22. 20. 18. 19. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.1 88.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 10/06/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 8.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.64 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.25 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.70 5.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 -4.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.6% 40.1% 29.6% 19.9% 13.4% 23.2% 22.7% 37.2% Logistic: 24.5% 64.4% 48.1% 39.5% 20.6% 51.2% 57.0% 22.9% Bayesian: 6.6% 23.7% 16.9% 5.5% 0.8% 13.5% 4.4% 24.4% Consensus: 16.2% 42.8% 31.5% 21.6% 11.6% 29.3% 28.0% 28.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 10/06/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX