* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972018 10/06/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 39 43 46 51 53 54 51 45 42 44 42 V (KT) LAND 30 35 30 29 28 27 32 33 30 24 20 24 26 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 30 29 28 27 32 33 32 30 26 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 9 11 13 20 28 26 37 37 36 38 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -3 0 1 0 -1 -2 -5 -2 0 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 30 19 8 353 359 338 324 315 293 293 276 249 223 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 28.9 29.0 29.3 28.1 28.6 28.8 28.6 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 158 158 159 154 156 160 148 153 154 151 147 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.7 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.0 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 6 5 7 7 8 8 8 5 7 3 700-500 MB RH 81 80 77 76 76 74 72 70 68 72 70 73 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 90 91 89 92 92 77 74 74 83 40 -1 43 82 200 MB DIV 80 87 109 127 112 71 24 67 16 45 39 75 66 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 2 3 4 30 33 46 22 19 21 0 LAND (KM) 56 0 -33 -109 -160 -10 248 133 137 60 -47 -235 -434 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.3 15.8 17.9 21.0 24.4 27.7 30.2 32.5 35.2 LONG(DEG W) 88.3 88.3 87.9 87.2 86.4 84.9 83.4 82.3 82.3 83.4 85.0 85.5 83.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 6 9 9 12 15 17 17 16 13 12 17 HEAT CONTENT 18 23 38 30 25 33 62 71 45 45 11 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 15.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 9. 15. 22. 27. 30. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -3. -9. -18. -26. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 16. 21. 23. 24. 21. 15. 12. 14. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.6 88.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 10/06/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 11.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.57 6.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.24 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.72 7.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 7.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 -6.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 4.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.1% 60.0% 40.0% 29.9% 15.4% 38.3% 34.9% 0.0% Logistic: 52.8% 83.2% 70.4% 65.3% 45.0% 69.5% 59.7% 32.2% Bayesian: 42.2% 62.9% 56.7% 34.5% 5.0% 23.1% 4.6% 5.3% Consensus: 38.7% 68.7% 55.7% 43.2% 21.8% 43.6% 33.1% 12.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 10/06/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX