* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972018 10/05/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 24 25 28 32 35 36 37 36 39 41 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 24 23 25 26 31 33 34 33 36 38 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 21 25 26 28 26 25 24 23 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 11 11 14 18 23 24 24 19 29 24 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -4 -7 -2 -1 -3 0 -1 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 39 31 29 25 8 328 328 301 298 289 313 313 320 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.1 28.9 29.0 28.5 28.7 29.5 29.2 28.4 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 155 154 153 154 149 152 161 158 150 148 151 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -52.8 -53.6 -52.9 -53.5 -53.0 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 5 4 6 5 7 7 8 8 8 6 700-500 MB RH 78 79 79 78 76 75 77 78 76 72 70 71 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 99 92 84 85 74 69 79 77 63 65 37 9 -15 200 MB DIV 61 46 60 58 64 83 96 67 51 24 8 36 39 700-850 TADV -1 -1 1 3 3 7 0 9 10 14 20 6 11 LAND (KM) 152 144 105 44 -41 -141 -65 131 346 84 152 82 93 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 12.0 13.0 14.5 16.6 18.9 21.6 24.3 26.6 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 87.7 87.8 87.5 86.9 86.2 84.8 83.8 83.3 83.0 82.9 83.0 83.2 83.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 5 7 8 9 10 11 13 13 13 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 10 13 28 14 37 35 112 87 50 40 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 9. 18. 27. 33. 37. 40. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -6. -10. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 12. 15. 16. 17. 16. 19. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.0 87.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 10/05/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.93 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 32.9% 12.4% 6.7% 4.5% 10.5% 43.4% 37.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 2.8% Consensus: 1.7% 11.6% 4.3% 2.3% 1.5% 3.6% 14.5% 13.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 10/05/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX