* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972018 10/05/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 27 32 37 41 43 44 45 48 49 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 27 26 26 27 31 32 33 35 36 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 25 26 26 29 27 26 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 6 9 9 15 15 19 23 21 25 22 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -4 -6 -3 -1 0 -3 0 -2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 85 32 17 13 19 342 327 302 299 312 304 323 319 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.4 28.9 28.8 29.4 29.5 29.5 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 158 160 160 158 153 153 159 161 161 153 151 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 80 78 78 78 77 76 78 76 76 70 68 70 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 110 103 93 89 81 53 63 84 63 47 47 30 0 200 MB DIV 69 59 58 82 91 112 89 87 42 35 4 2 26 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 1 2 0 4 0 7 21 26 13 15 LAND (KM) 130 129 106 68 14 -133 -97 -54 167 226 0 165 141 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.4 12.2 13.4 15.1 17.3 19.8 22.2 24.4 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 87.3 87.4 87.2 86.8 86.3 85.2 84.4 84.3 84.1 83.8 83.4 83.1 83.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 3 5 5 7 8 10 12 13 12 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 11 13 13 34 14 39 45 107 112 50 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. 1. 8. 17. 27. 33. 38. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -5. -8. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 24. 25. 28. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.9 87.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 10/05/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.91 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.55 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 18.2% 66.0% 44.6% 31.0% 25.2% 37.1% 57.7% 53.8% Bayesian: 0.6% 5.1% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 3.3% 4.4% 2.5% Consensus: 6.2% 23.7% 15.4% 10.5% 8.4% 13.5% 20.7% 18.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 10/05/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX