* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972018 10/05/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 24 26 30 33 37 37 40 43 45 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 21 25 26 26 32 32 35 37 39 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 26 29 28 27 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 2 6 8 12 17 19 23 23 15 24 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -2 -3 -3 -5 0 0 -3 -3 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 125 119 358 335 343 329 304 309 289 295 297 319 312 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.1 28.8 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 158 158 158 158 154 152 158 161 162 155 153 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.9 -52.9 -53.7 -53.2 -53.8 -53.4 -54.0 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 6 6 4 5 5 8 7 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 77 79 77 77 78 79 79 79 78 71 67 67 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 104 116 105 94 90 78 75 76 77 52 53 42 34 200 MB DIV 83 84 83 72 97 106 114 65 41 14 18 -2 5 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -1 1 1 4 -1 5 9 19 24 18 LAND (KM) 75 75 75 36 -3 -119 -184 -87 112 282 67 88 132 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.6 13.7 15.1 16.9 19.0 21.2 23.5 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 86.9 87.0 87.0 86.8 86.5 85.8 85.2 85.1 85.1 84.8 84.4 83.9 83.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 3 4 6 6 8 10 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 13 15 15 30 8 26 42 76 135 122 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. 1. 8. 17. 27. 33. 38. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 1. -4. -7. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 17. 17. 20. 23. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.2 86.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 10/05/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.92 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.7% 57.8% 39.9% 28.0% 13.5% 46.3% 53.2% 48.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 1.5% 3.1% 1.4% Consensus: 3.3% 20.1% 13.6% 9.4% 4.6% 15.9% 18.8% 16.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 10/05/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX