* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972018 10/04/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 26 29 33 37 40 40 41 45 46 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 26 25 26 27 31 31 32 35 37 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 24 26 26 29 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 5 1 6 8 14 19 21 25 20 22 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -4 -2 -4 -4 -2 0 -1 -4 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 114 125 121 355 336 315 308 305 294 289 299 300 315 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.8 29.1 29.6 29.7 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 158 158 158 159 156 151 155 161 162 155 155 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 5 6 5 5 5 8 8 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 77 77 78 76 77 79 80 82 76 74 67 66 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 98 102 108 98 89 84 77 82 73 57 44 48 38 200 MB DIV 71 84 84 84 76 103 112 76 41 12 27 13 6 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 1 1 10 16 22 22 LAND (KM) 68 68 60 45 6 -111 -184 -132 56 267 156 18 229 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.3 11.6 12.4 13.5 14.7 16.4 18.3 20.4 22.6 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 86.7 86.8 86.7 86.6 86.4 85.7 85.2 85.0 85.0 84.9 84.7 84.3 83.7 STM SPEED (KT) 1 0 1 2 4 6 6 7 9 10 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 13 13 15 33 10 11 37 61 117 128 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. 1. 8. 17. 27. 33. 38. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. -3. -6. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 20. 20. 21. 25. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.1 86.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 10/04/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.91 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.60 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 48.3% 30.3% 19.5% 8.8% 42.7% 67.4% 56.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 2.5% 6.4% 3.5% Consensus: 1.7% 16.8% 10.3% 6.6% 2.9% 15.1% 24.6% 20.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 10/04/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX