* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972018 08/14/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 51 61 71 79 85 88 87 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 51 61 71 79 85 88 87 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 34 40 46 54 63 72 79 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 4 7 7 4 7 3 3 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -5 -3 -4 -4 -3 -6 -5 -6 -4 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 63 57 55 58 63 81 47 70 67 52 76 135 131 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.3 26.7 28.8 28.6 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 144 142 140 143 140 139 138 131 152 150 135 134 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.2 -54.7 -54.1 -54.7 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 72 70 70 71 73 71 71 70 73 71 71 65 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -13 -13 -10 -11 -11 -3 4 11 21 11 -1 -12 200 MB DIV -6 -8 8 40 57 73 77 53 38 32 19 8 18 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 2 1 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -5 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 1568 1623 1688 1765 1837 1970 2139 2315 2532 2515 2354 2199 2036 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.1 10.7 10.5 10.4 10.6 11.3 LONG(DEG W) 118.1 119.0 120.0 121.0 122.0 124.0 126.4 128.8 131.1 133.3 135.0 136.5 137.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 11 12 12 11 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 17 23 18 12 11 14 17 20 19 13 11 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 19. 18. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 26. 36. 46. 54. 60. 63. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.1 118.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 08/14/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.56 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.27 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.81 -1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 15.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 5.1% 2.1% 0.9% 0.7% 2.8% 7.4% 22.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% Consensus: 0.3% 7.0% 3.3% 0.3% 0.2% 5.0% 7.7% 7.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 6.0% 21.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 08/14/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX