* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972018 08/14/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 35 43 51 59 66 70 74 73 71 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 35 43 51 59 66 70 74 73 71 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 34 39 45 52 58 64 68 69 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 10 9 8 4 3 1 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -6 -6 -5 -7 -7 -6 -1 0 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 76 67 59 60 65 61 61 59 61 316 11 259 244 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.5 28.2 27.7 27.3 27.4 27.3 28.0 28.2 28.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 146 150 147 141 137 137 137 144 146 146 135 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 71 72 71 69 69 71 72 70 65 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -26 -25 -21 -11 -6 -5 -1 4 7 4 -11 -32 200 MB DIV 11 -4 -12 7 33 42 38 42 52 2 15 18 7 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1543 1619 1703 1807 1902 2077 2244 2410 2566 2719 2549 2351 2134 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.1 10.9 10.4 10.0 9.6 9.3 9.0 9.1 9.4 9.9 LONG(DEG W) 118.3 119.5 120.6 121.7 122.8 124.8 126.7 128.5 130.2 132.0 133.7 135.6 137.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 25 14 10 9 15 22 30 30 33 27 13 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 17. 16. 12. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 10. 18. 26. 35. 41. 45. 49. 48. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 118.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 08/14/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.52 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.13 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 -3.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.1% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 15.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 15.5% 5.8% 3.0% 3.3% 6.1% 12.2% 45.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 6.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.8% 2.3% 1.8% Consensus: 1.0% 11.9% 6.7% 1.0% 1.2% 6.5% 9.8% 15.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 08/14/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX