* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972018 08/14/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 38 46 54 63 70 75 77 80 78 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 38 46 54 63 70 75 77 80 78 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 41 47 53 60 65 69 73 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 10 10 11 13 10 9 7 9 8 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -6 -7 -7 -6 -7 -5 -3 -4 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 81 75 73 59 56 62 55 52 55 30 12 335 295 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.5 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.5 27.2 27.7 28.6 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 145 147 149 141 140 136 138 135 141 150 147 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.8 -54.4 -54.9 -54.3 -54.9 -54.3 -54.8 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 72 74 74 73 75 75 72 73 74 76 73 71 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -25 -25 -22 -18 -10 -9 -3 2 12 9 4 -12 200 MB DIV 10 4 0 4 24 54 53 42 59 53 22 25 29 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1495 1564 1643 1744 1832 2001 2155 2292 2395 2495 2586 2545 2345 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.0 10.8 10.3 9.9 9.6 9.6 9.7 10.2 10.9 12.0 LONG(DEG W) 117.3 118.5 119.6 120.7 121.7 123.5 125.3 126.9 128.3 129.7 131.3 132.8 134.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 7 7 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 13 22 24 13 10 10 20 26 29 28 20 18 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 21. 29. 38. 45. 50. 52. 55. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 117.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 08/14/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.50 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -3.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.1% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 14.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 14.1% 4.6% 2.4% 3.0% 5.6% 31.8% 62.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 3.1% Consensus: 0.7% 10.7% 6.4% 0.8% 1.1% 6.1% 15.6% 22.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 5.0% 8.0% 50.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 08/14/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX