* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972018 08/13/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 32 39 49 61 71 79 83 86 84 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 32 39 49 61 71 79 83 86 84 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 28 33 39 46 54 61 66 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 11 10 9 10 8 6 6 5 7 5 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -4 -4 -6 -4 -6 -5 -4 -1 -4 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 73 77 71 77 64 58 65 66 58 58 29 50 239 SST (C) 27.8 28.1 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.5 27.6 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.4 28.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 142 142 144 149 140 140 136 137 138 146 157 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 74 74 74 74 73 74 73 72 72 75 74 72 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -26 -22 -23 -19 -9 -4 3 6 13 20 17 -3 200 MB DIV 5 0 9 0 -2 30 53 92 52 78 12 44 15 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -7 0 LAND (KM) 1389 1418 1483 1568 1650 1824 1980 2135 2281 2417 2544 2594 2402 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.8 11.7 11.5 11.3 10.9 10.6 10.2 10.0 9.9 10.1 10.5 11.2 LONG(DEG W) 115.6 116.6 117.6 118.7 119.7 121.7 123.6 125.4 127.2 128.9 130.7 132.5 134.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 10 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 13 23 23 10 10 18 22 28 22 18 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 18. 26. 31. 35. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 29. 41. 51. 59. 63. 66. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.6 115.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 08/13/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 15.8% 5.5% 2.7% 2.8% 7.2% 34.5% 63.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 1.2% Consensus: 0.8% 6.9% 1.9% 0.9% 1.0% 2.5% 11.6% 21.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 08/13/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX