* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972018 08/13/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 39 48 58 68 74 80 83 80 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 39 48 58 68 74 80 83 80 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 28 32 37 42 47 52 57 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 10 12 11 11 10 8 7 6 4 4 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -7 -6 -6 -5 -6 -7 -4 0 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 74 73 77 78 77 54 41 47 39 46 50 359 278 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.3 27.8 28.0 27.3 27.4 27.1 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 143 143 146 148 147 141 143 136 137 135 138 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.9 -54.5 -55.0 -54.3 -55.0 -54.5 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 73 73 74 73 75 74 77 73 72 73 77 75 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -35 -30 -28 -27 -18 -9 -3 2 3 8 11 -6 200 MB DIV 10 1 0 8 0 3 56 103 88 66 73 23 12 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 1423 1467 1513 1597 1669 1838 2008 2134 2243 2312 2387 2450 2516 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.1 10.8 10.6 10.0 9.4 9.1 8.9 9.2 9.7 10.6 11.6 LONG(DEG W) 115.0 116.2 117.1 118.1 119.0 120.8 122.5 123.9 125.3 126.7 128.3 130.0 131.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 9 10 9 9 8 8 6 8 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 13 17 19 12 12 21 39 34 29 22 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 440 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 18. 26. 31. 35. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 15. 16. 18. 17. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 28. 38. 48. 54. 60. 63. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.0 115.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 08/13/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 23.2% 8.4% 4.5% 6.3% 9.4% 29.0% 61.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.9% 0.6% Consensus: 1.3% 8.8% 2.9% 1.5% 2.2% 3.3% 10.0% 20.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 08/13/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX