* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972018 08/13/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 28 35 43 53 61 67 71 73 74 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 28 35 43 53 61 67 71 73 74 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 33 37 41 45 49 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 9 11 11 10 10 13 14 10 6 4 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -5 -6 -6 -5 -7 -10 -6 0 3 3 SHEAR DIR 84 74 78 88 99 86 78 56 55 52 38 29 11 SST (C) 28.2 27.7 27.7 28.2 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.2 27.8 27.5 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 142 142 146 144 146 149 144 141 135 141 139 141 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.9 -54.9 -55.3 -55.0 -55.2 -55.1 -55.3 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 69 70 72 71 71 73 72 73 70 70 69 72 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -47 -48 -46 -42 -33 -31 -26 -19 -10 -9 -8 -7 200 MB DIV 9 2 -8 -5 -12 -14 3 30 50 18 13 5 12 700-850 TADV 4 3 1 1 2 2 1 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1274 1335 1415 1463 1513 1675 1843 2028 2205 2363 2509 2657 2794 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.9 11.1 11.1 11.1 10.6 10.1 9.5 8.9 8.3 7.9 7.6 7.5 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.8 115.0 116.1 117.1 119.1 121.0 122.9 124.7 126.3 127.9 129.6 131.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 18 12 11 14 19 12 12 31 48 35 36 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 18. 26. 31. 35. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 15. 23. 33. 41. 47. 51. 53. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.5 112.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 08/13/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.13 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 3.5% 1.3% 0.6% 0.4% 1.9% 5.9% 34.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 2.0% 11.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 08/13/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX