* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972018 08/12/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 29 36 45 52 58 62 65 66 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 25 29 36 45 52 58 62 65 66 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 27 30 33 36 39 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 14 14 13 12 8 11 13 15 10 6 0 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -5 -6 -6 -6 -2 -3 -6 -7 0 4 7 SHEAR DIR 87 91 93 95 97 94 87 58 49 58 58 88 179 SST (C) 27.9 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.8 28.3 28.1 27.9 28.2 27.5 27.8 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 145 141 142 147 145 143 146 138 141 141 139 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -55.3 -55.1 -55.2 -55.1 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 71 71 72 72 70 69 68 69 67 64 64 65 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -37 -37 -39 -38 -27 -19 -17 -18 -18 -14 -22 -21 200 MB DIV 22 23 15 -8 -20 -4 -29 4 15 6 0 -9 -2 700-850 TADV 4 4 4 1 0 2 1 1 0 -1 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1228 1273 1324 1390 1468 1596 1748 1909 2056 2201 2342 2471 2618 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.1 9.4 8.8 8.3 7.8 7.4 7.1 6.8 LONG(DEG W) 110.9 112.1 113.1 114.1 115.1 116.8 118.4 120.2 121.8 123.3 124.8 126.3 128.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 21 15 11 13 17 17 21 37 51 49 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 18. 26. 31. 35. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 16. 18. 19. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -6. -7. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 16. 25. 32. 38. 42. 45. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.9 110.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 08/12/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.34 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.15 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 48.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 4.4% 1.4% 0.7% 0.8% 2.0% 1.2% 11.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 4.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 08/12/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX