* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972018 08/12/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 38 41 47 55 62 68 73 76 78 80 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 38 41 47 55 62 68 73 76 78 80 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 40 44 47 50 52 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 16 18 19 16 12 7 4 4 5 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -5 -2 -1 0 4 3 4 3 5 7 SHEAR DIR 54 61 70 82 87 89 89 88 95 15 30 5 47 SST (C) 28.2 27.3 27.0 27.8 28.1 28.0 28.2 28.1 28.4 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 138 135 142 145 143 145 144 147 141 141 142 138 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.5 -55.0 -54.7 -54.2 -54.7 -54.2 -54.6 -54.6 -55.3 -55.1 -55.2 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 73 74 72 72 72 67 69 70 75 69 69 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -23 -30 -26 -24 -22 -17 -16 -13 -16 -24 -22 -21 200 MB DIV 127 137 112 74 67 19 -19 -8 7 9 15 3 -7 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 3 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1117 1180 1231 1283 1318 1393 1499 1632 1746 1854 1961 2077 2196 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.7 10.1 9.8 9.3 8.8 8.2 7.7 7.2 6.7 LONG(DEG W) 107.4 108.8 110.0 111.2 112.1 113.7 114.8 116.0 117.2 118.2 119.3 120.5 121.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 9 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 30 28 23 18 17 16 13 16 18 19 22 29 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 16. 22. 30. 37. 43. 48. 51. 53. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.0 107.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 08/12/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.24 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.20 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.72 4.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -3.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 15.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 14.5% 5.1% 3.2% 2.6% 5.1% 20.3% 41.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.7% 12.8% 8.1% 1.1% 0.9% 6.7% 12.0% 13.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 08/12/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX