* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972018 08/11/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 38 41 46 52 58 62 65 69 70 70 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 38 41 46 52 58 62 65 69 70 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 33 36 39 40 39 39 39 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 13 15 18 20 14 9 7 1 5 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -4 -4 -3 0 3 5 9 4 4 10 SHEAR DIR 38 48 50 68 80 97 124 133 166 119 340 332 276 SST (C) 28.0 27.3 26.4 27.3 27.9 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.4 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 138 129 138 143 147 145 144 142 143 140 138 131 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -54.5 -55.1 -54.9 -54.7 -54.6 -54.4 -54.9 -55.2 -55.3 -55.1 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 73 74 73 70 69 65 62 63 67 66 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -19 -20 -26 -25 -21 -24 -22 -24 -29 -30 -28 -23 200 MB DIV 99 120 120 88 55 9 -22 -28 -11 8 -2 -12 -25 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 0 1 6 3 2 1 0 -1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1154 1213 1275 1348 1401 1500 1610 1749 1899 2045 2194 2338 2488 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.7 8.8 9.0 8.9 8.4 7.7 7.0 6.4 5.9 5.4 LONG(DEG W) 107.1 108.5 109.8 111.0 112.1 113.9 115.3 116.6 118.1 119.6 121.2 122.8 124.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 29 19 13 14 16 17 19 26 26 12 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 16. 21. 27. 33. 37. 40. 44. 45. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.5 107.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 08/11/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.28 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.21 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.68 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -3.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.4% 18.8% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 14.4% 0.0% Logistic: 9.1% 39.8% 17.1% 10.9% 9.0% 8.2% 15.1% 40.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 7.2% 3.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 23.2% 13.0% 3.8% 3.0% 7.6% 10.0% 13.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 08/11/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX