* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972018 08/11/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 45 51 59 67 73 77 80 80 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 45 51 59 67 73 77 80 80 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 37 40 42 44 46 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 12 12 15 18 15 10 5 3 8 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 0 -3 -5 0 3 5 7 2 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 22 33 45 50 62 82 85 92 107 69 2 3 11 SST (C) 27.6 27.8 28.1 27.0 26.9 28.0 28.3 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 144 147 135 134 144 146 144 144 142 141 141 137 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -54.4 -54.8 -54.3 -54.7 -54.1 -54.6 -54.8 -55.3 -55.0 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 72 74 75 75 74 70 69 64 69 69 73 71 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -20 -18 -17 -18 -12 -18 -21 -17 -22 -22 -25 -17 200 MB DIV 66 80 102 108 90 56 5 -32 -20 19 18 16 -6 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -4 -2 0 3 3 0 0 0 -1 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 1070 1101 1141 1201 1268 1380 1480 1617 1772 1899 2036 2153 2282 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.0 8.4 7.8 7.1 6.7 6.3 LONG(DEG W) 105.0 106.3 107.7 109.0 110.3 112.5 114.1 115.5 116.9 118.3 119.6 121.0 122.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 12 10 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 23 30 28 23 15 16 16 18 19 26 29 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 26. 34. 42. 48. 52. 55. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.5 105.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 08/11/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.38 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.21 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.65 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 -3.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.4% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 15.3% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 31.8% 14.2% 7.2% 3.2% 6.9% 17.6% 39.8% Bayesian: 0.6% 6.1% 2.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% Consensus: 2.0% 19.4% 11.6% 2.6% 1.1% 7.2% 11.2% 13.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 08/11/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX