* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972018 06/30/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 39 44 54 64 78 89 96 100 93 84 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 39 44 54 64 78 89 96 100 93 84 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 41 50 62 78 93 95 88 73 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 8 9 9 10 9 7 5 2 1 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -2 -3 -3 -4 -3 -1 5 2 8 8 SHEAR DIR 57 47 41 23 35 31 27 59 18 1 47 259 271 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.2 27.9 28.7 28.5 28.7 27.7 26.9 26.4 24.9 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 150 147 144 152 150 152 142 134 130 114 106 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 5 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 72 72 73 74 67 67 66 58 57 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 15 16 18 21 27 33 36 37 34 31 850 MB ENV VOR 33 36 42 46 49 59 75 79 74 84 72 83 69 200 MB DIV 66 53 32 29 55 73 88 101 67 62 30 -14 -3 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -3 -1 -4 -1 -4 -6 3 8 10 4 LAND (KM) 762 776 790 825 871 966 1084 1116 1147 1235 1360 1523 1687 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 12 14 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 27 34 44 52 39 41 14 12 3 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 22. 26. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 7. 14. 24. 31. 33. 27. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 14. 24. 34. 48. 59. 66. 70. 63. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.0 103.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 06/30/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.48 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.36 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 -4.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 20.0% 19.8% 13.7% 0.0% 18.0% 19.6% 23.5% Logistic: 1.1% 9.6% 3.9% 1.5% 1.2% 6.4% 25.3% 22.4% Bayesian: 0.7% 25.4% 5.8% 1.3% 0.3% 1.8% 3.6% 6.4% Consensus: 3.5% 18.3% 9.8% 5.5% 0.5% 8.7% 16.2% 17.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 12.0% 8.0% 4.0% 1.0% 8.0% 15.0% 48.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 06/30/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX