* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972018 06/30/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 45 55 68 80 86 95 96 89 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 45 55 68 80 86 95 96 89 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 36 44 55 67 77 80 75 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 12 10 12 10 10 5 5 5 3 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -6 -5 -2 -3 -2 0 -4 0 0 2 6 SHEAR DIR 43 43 37 23 15 20 34 44 334 9 78 190 228 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.0 28.5 28.6 28.5 27.8 26.8 25.9 25.5 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 151 151 145 150 151 150 143 133 124 119 79 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.5 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -53.6 -54.2 -53.2 -53.6 -52.7 -53.0 -51.6 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 76 73 71 71 72 71 74 71 67 64 59 54 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 15 18 23 27 30 34 36 34 850 MB ENV VOR 25 30 31 40 44 51 62 75 79 89 80 61 39 200 MB DIV 72 44 42 39 49 56 75 104 82 70 69 33 -23 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -4 -4 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -4 5 10 LAND (KM) 738 763 781 803 838 905 1010 1053 1091 1174 1283 1390 1453 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 11 12 14 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 29 28 35 48 49 39 18 11 4 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 32. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 12. 19. 25. 31. 32. 29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 30. 43. 55. 61. 70. 71. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 102.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 06/30/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.40 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.34 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.86 -3.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.2% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 15.8% 17.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 10.8% 4.3% 1.6% 1.9% 6.1% 36.7% 32.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 2.9% 2.9% Consensus: 0.4% 11.5% 7.4% 0.6% 0.7% 7.5% 19.1% 11.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 06/30/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX