* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972018 06/30/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 46 55 66 77 88 95 93 85 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 46 55 66 77 88 95 93 85 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 35 41 50 63 77 85 76 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 12 6 7 9 11 10 9 6 7 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -2 -1 -1 -4 -4 -4 -2 4 4 4 SHEAR DIR 48 44 44 40 16 16 22 14 54 312 337 270 296 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.3 27.7 28.5 27.9 28.4 26.9 26.0 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 149 149 150 148 141 149 143 150 135 126 125 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.2 -54.6 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -53.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 77 77 75 73 71 72 73 73 70 69 65 64 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 15 16 20 23 30 34 33 28 850 MB ENV VOR 23 33 42 47 51 51 52 59 67 66 62 53 49 200 MB DIV 112 70 51 47 36 63 79 80 104 92 78 12 -14 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 0 -2 -1 -3 -2 3 16 17 LAND (KM) 732 740 754 768 799 833 909 995 1066 1052 1022 1167 1403 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.8 12.3 12.7 13.3 14.4 16.3 17.5 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 100.8 101.7 102.7 103.7 104.9 107.2 109.3 111.2 112.7 114.4 116.8 120.4 123.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 11 10 8 9 13 16 18 12 HEAT CONTENT 34 37 32 28 34 59 35 33 14 11 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 32. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 9. 15. 25. 30. 28. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 21. 30. 41. 52. 63. 70. 68. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 100.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 06/30/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.45 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.30 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.51 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.88 -4.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.0% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 17.2% 19.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 6.3% 2.5% 0.9% 0.6% 5.0% 51.8% 49.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 8.2% 2.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 6.5% Consensus: 0.2% 11.5% 7.7% 0.5% 0.3% 7.5% 23.6% 18.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 31.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 06/30/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX