* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972018 06/30/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 49 62 74 85 94 103 103 99 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 49 62 74 85 94 103 103 99 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 30 35 43 55 70 84 94 88 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 16 15 11 11 6 9 8 3 9 2 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -5 -5 -3 -2 -4 -1 -2 0 5 4 6 SHEAR DIR 60 46 39 38 44 11 33 7 31 1 305 22 294 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.1 28.5 28.1 28.5 27.6 26.9 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 151 148 147 150 146 150 145 150 142 135 122 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -55.1 -55.2 -54.6 -54.1 -54.7 -53.5 -54.1 -52.9 -53.5 -51.8 -52.4 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 78 77 77 76 74 73 73 73 71 70 67 68 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 15 15 18 22 27 31 37 37 35 850 MB ENV VOR 28 28 38 46 51 49 48 58 73 72 78 65 48 200 MB DIV 124 116 85 68 67 68 104 115 139 100 85 22 25 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 -2 1 -3 0 -2 4 15 11 LAND (KM) 733 753 770 790 800 803 832 905 1018 1075 1070 1175 1285 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.5 11.3 12.1 12.8 13.4 14.0 15.4 16.5 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 100.0 100.8 101.7 102.6 103.5 105.6 107.7 110.0 112.2 114.0 116.4 119.3 122.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 10 11 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 28 33 35 30 26 40 56 37 18 12 4 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 15.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 11. 19. 26. 35. 33. 30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 24. 37. 49. 60. 69. 78. 78. 74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.7 100.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 06/30/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.27 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.27 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.66 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 8.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.89 -4.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.6% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% 17.6% 20.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 17.0% 6.8% 3.2% 3.9% 12.9% 64.4% 56.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 1.4% 3.3% 22.7% Consensus: 0.5% 14.5% 9.1% 1.1% 1.3% 10.7% 29.5% 26.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 22.0% 9.0% 3.0% 0.0% 4.0% 29.0% 46.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 06/30/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX