* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972018 06/29/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 37 43 51 60 72 81 93 98 94 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 37 43 51 60 72 81 93 98 94 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 37 43 50 60 74 88 96 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 17 18 16 11 8 6 9 9 10 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -5 -6 -4 -2 -2 -3 -4 -4 -1 5 1 SHEAR DIR 66 67 58 43 45 34 12 354 55 51 2 349 245 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.5 28.0 28.7 27.8 28.5 27.2 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 153 151 148 147 151 146 153 141 150 139 105 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.7 -55.0 -55.2 -54.7 -54.5 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.2 -52.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 5 6 7 8 7 8 8 6 2 700-500 MB RH 80 77 77 78 76 73 73 73 73 68 66 64 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 13 15 16 20 24 29 32 32 850 MB ENV VOR 25 26 26 36 47 53 49 45 62 76 73 55 36 200 MB DIV 80 91 86 75 68 59 72 84 72 104 84 30 -13 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 -4 -4 7 9 LAND (KM) 749 782 823 841 852 833 787 818 955 1136 1129 967 1036 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.3 9.5 10.3 11.5 12.6 13.1 12.9 13.6 16.2 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 99.4 100.2 101.0 101.7 102.4 103.8 105.7 108.2 111.1 113.2 114.3 115.9 119.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 9 13 14 13 7 11 19 24 HEAT CONTENT 24 27 30 30 29 25 43 43 34 13 13 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 33. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 10. 12. 12. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 16. 24. 27. 27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 12. 18. 26. 35. 47. 56. 68. 73. 69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.4 99.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 06/29/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.12 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.25 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.60 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 7.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.89 -3.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.3% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 17.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 3.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.5% 2.3% 35.1% 52.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 8.9% Consensus: 0.1% 8.1% 5.9% 0.2% 0.2% 5.8% 17.8% 20.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 6.0% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 06/29/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX