* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972018 06/29/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 35 39 43 51 57 65 70 81 87 93 98 V (KT) LAND 25 30 35 39 43 51 57 65 70 81 87 93 98 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 34 37 44 51 57 66 77 90 100 105 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 13 14 15 16 17 13 8 9 5 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -4 -5 -7 -6 -2 -5 -6 -6 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 60 67 72 69 53 42 29 28 35 71 349 39 49 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.8 28.9 28.1 28.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 152 152 148 148 147 147 143 154 146 149 138 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.1 -54.8 -55.0 -55.2 -54.3 -54.8 -53.8 -54.3 -53.6 -54.0 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 81 79 76 74 75 72 73 72 72 72 69 65 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 12 11 13 13 18 20 22 27 850 MB ENV VOR 24 25 24 31 40 51 56 44 41 52 62 74 57 200 MB DIV 53 76 88 76 69 77 60 81 99 75 62 122 100 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 -1 -2 -4 0 0 0 -3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 666 684 720 766 820 896 928 879 866 902 1038 1078 1082 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.9 10.1 11.1 12.2 13.3 14.0 14.6 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 98.5 99.4 100.5 101.6 102.6 104.3 105.6 106.8 108.4 110.6 113.0 115.3 116.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 10 9 7 7 9 11 12 12 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 32 35 29 24 32 51 43 36 12 9 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 33. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 4. 5. 12. 15. 17. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 26. 32. 40. 45. 56. 62. 68. 73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 98.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 06/29/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.35 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.26 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.56 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 9.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.89 -4.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.31 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.3% 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.5% 18.3% 0.0% Logistic: 8.2% 34.6% 20.0% 9.5% 15.6% 18.0% 68.7% 79.8% Bayesian: 1.5% 27.9% 10.0% 2.2% 0.4% 8.8% 11.9% 16.5% Consensus: 3.2% 29.3% 17.0% 3.9% 5.3% 14.8% 33.0% 32.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 13.0% 7.0% 3.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 56.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 06/29/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX