* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972018 06/29/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 32 40 48 55 61 64 68 71 72 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 32 40 48 55 61 64 68 71 72 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 27 31 35 39 44 48 53 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 12 14 15 19 16 15 10 8 3 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -3 -2 -4 -3 0 -2 -4 -4 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 78 84 79 80 81 68 55 15 357 319 84 162 55 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.0 27.9 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 151 149 141 141 150 153 153 155 153 152 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -55.1 -55.3 -55.0 -54.7 -55.1 -54.2 -54.8 -53.6 -54.2 -53.3 -53.8 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 80 80 80 79 76 75 73 71 71 71 67 63 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 1 8 19 33 48 61 43 44 48 65 86 83 200 MB DIV 54 57 50 59 79 93 89 100 111 80 84 73 71 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 2 1 0 -1 0 1 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 648 675 727 786 844 939 921 819 702 724 862 1069 1172 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.0 9.7 9.4 9.1 8.6 9.0 10.4 12.2 13.5 14.3 14.1 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 98.1 99.0 99.8 100.6 101.3 102.3 102.8 103.7 105.4 108.0 111.1 114.1 115.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 7 4 6 11 13 15 16 12 6 HEAT CONTENT 31 28 31 34 32 28 27 27 55 30 21 13 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 3. 10. 18. 26. 32. 36. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 14. 12. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 20. 28. 35. 41. 44. 48. 51. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.1 98.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 06/29/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.28 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.49 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 6.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 29.6% 13.9% 6.5% 6.7% 13.2% 49.4% 72.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 1.9% 2.5% 7.7% Consensus: 1.6% 11.5% 5.0% 2.2% 2.2% 5.0% 17.3% 26.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 06/29/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX