* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972018 06/28/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 28 34 42 49 54 57 59 62 62 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 28 34 42 49 54 57 59 62 62 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 28 31 34 36 37 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 15 17 18 21 21 14 13 9 6 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -4 -2 -2 -3 0 0 -4 -2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 72 77 84 80 77 68 57 15 349 304 217 108 23 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.0 28.1 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 149 149 148 141 143 151 152 153 154 144 143 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.6 -55.1 -55.4 -55.0 -54.9 -54.7 -54.5 -54.2 -53.9 -53.6 -52.7 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 7 8 9 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 82 80 81 82 80 78 77 73 72 72 66 66 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 0 -2 6 22 52 61 52 36 44 55 79 78 200 MB DIV 49 74 79 70 66 94 110 97 90 100 88 59 22 700-850 TADV 4 1 0 1 3 1 0 -2 -4 -8 7 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 648 666 712 772 838 941 925 806 632 545 685 901 963 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.0 9.7 9.3 8.9 8.3 8.6 10.0 12.3 14.3 15.4 15.2 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 97.5 98.5 99.2 99.9 100.6 101.6 102.0 102.5 103.8 106.3 109.9 112.7 114.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 8 8 7 3 4 11 15 17 17 10 6 HEAT CONTENT 34 29 28 29 30 28 29 33 49 26 15 9 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 447 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 3. 10. 18. 26. 32. 36. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 13. 12. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 22. 29. 34. 37. 39. 42. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.0 97.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 06/28/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.12 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.27 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.53 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 4.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.20 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 3.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.4% 1.1% 19.4% 54.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% Consensus: 0.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 6.5% 21.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 06/28/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX