* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972018 06/28/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 32 39 47 53 58 61 61 61 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 32 39 47 53 58 61 61 61 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 22 24 27 30 33 37 39 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 16 13 13 17 20 13 13 4 3 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -3 -3 -1 -4 -1 0 -1 -2 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 65 76 79 81 71 72 65 41 360 346 232 179 146 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.6 29.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 148 146 146 145 145 150 155 153 152 156 146 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -54.9 -54.6 -55.3 -55.5 -54.6 -55.2 -54.2 -54.6 -53.6 -54.0 -52.7 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 8 10 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 83 82 82 81 80 77 76 73 71 69 69 68 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 25 13 10 15 42 47 51 27 32 38 56 64 200 MB DIV 54 63 89 78 65 55 95 88 85 89 62 75 72 700-850 TADV 6 6 2 0 1 1 0 0 -6 -3 1 1 3 LAND (KM) 657 669 702 748 785 856 884 831 722 599 635 793 979 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.7 9.5 9.2 9.0 8.6 8.6 9.4 11.0 13.0 14.3 14.7 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 95.8 96.7 97.5 98.2 99.0 100.2 101.0 101.7 102.9 104.9 107.8 110.6 112.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 5 4 7 12 15 15 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 18 28 29 25 24 26 29 34 35 59 19 20 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 10. 18. 26. 32. 36. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 15. 15. 15. 12. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 19. 27. 33. 38. 41. 41. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.7 95.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 06/28/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.23 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.22 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 3.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 5.9% 2.1% 0.8% 0.6% 3.4% 7.3% 37.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 0.1% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 1.1% 2.4% 12.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 06/28/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX