* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972018 06/28/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 28 34 42 48 54 57 59 62 65 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 28 34 42 48 54 57 59 62 65 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 23 25 28 30 33 36 38 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 18 20 18 17 20 20 17 12 11 6 4 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 -5 -4 0 0 -2 0 -3 -2 2 1 SHEAR DIR 53 69 78 88 86 66 58 30 343 294 260 144 69 SST (C) 28.6 28.9 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 148 145 145 142 141 151 155 156 153 152 148 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.1 -54.9 -54.7 -55.4 -55.0 -54.9 -54.7 -54.2 -53.9 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 4 5 5 8 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 85 83 81 81 81 78 77 77 74 71 69 69 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 23 20 11 16 36 43 49 31 32 42 59 69 200 MB DIV 54 59 69 100 97 68 107 99 96 93 143 109 104 700-850 TADV 3 4 4 2 1 1 0 0 -5 0 -5 3 0 LAND (KM) 628 678 708 754 807 891 891 789 633 522 635 926 1122 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.6 9.4 9.1 8.7 8.1 8.2 9.3 11.4 13.6 14.6 14.1 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 95.2 96.3 97.2 97.9 98.4 99.4 99.9 100.4 101.8 104.5 108.3 111.7 113.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 7 6 4 3 10 15 19 18 14 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 24 29 26 24 23 26 38 50 51 16 21 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 3. 10. 18. 26. 32. 36. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 14. 12. 9. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 22. 28. 34. 37. 39. 42. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.6 95.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 06/28/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.12 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.20 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.58 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 5.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 5.5% 1.7% 0.7% 0.7% 2.4% 14.1% 47.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% Consensus: 0.2% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% 4.7% 18.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 06/28/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX