* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972018 06/28/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 29 36 43 51 57 60 62 66 69 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 29 36 43 51 57 60 62 66 69 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 29 31 34 37 40 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 22 24 25 22 19 21 17 9 12 8 3 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -7 -9 -7 -3 0 -1 -1 -3 -4 1 5 SHEAR DIR 39 39 48 57 61 66 63 40 345 318 248 189 91 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.7 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.3 28.5 29.2 28.6 28.9 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 151 146 144 142 141 146 151 160 154 156 149 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -54.9 -54.7 -55.5 -54.5 -55.2 -53.9 -54.3 -53.1 -53.4 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 7 8 10 8 8 700-500 MB RH 87 86 83 82 82 80 78 79 76 73 71 70 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 10 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 37 22 24 16 28 51 42 40 31 41 51 64 200 MB DIV 82 56 58 71 104 81 79 114 115 90 131 129 100 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -3 -2 1 LAND (KM) 576 631 711 737 779 872 894 816 655 543 567 823 1064 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.5 9.3 9.1 8.8 8.1 8.0 8.8 10.7 12.9 14.4 14.1 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 94.0 95.1 96.1 96.9 97.5 98.4 99.0 99.5 100.7 103.2 106.8 110.4 112.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 7 6 4 3 8 14 18 19 15 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 11 18 24 25 21 21 28 45 56 21 25 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 3. 10. 18. 26. 32. 36. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 13. 13. 11. 9. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 16. 23. 31. 37. 40. 42. 46. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.5 94.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 06/28/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -4.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.90 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.5% 1.1% 10.8% 45.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% Consensus: 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 3.6% 18.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 06/28/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX