* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962019 10/13/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 22 22 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 22 21 22 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 19 20 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 23 23 24 40 56 61 46 44 46 51 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 0 2 3 0 0 3 -3 1 -14 3 SHEAR DIR 181 189 208 233 239 248 259 255 262 310 323 306 300 SST (C) 26.8 26.4 25.8 25.4 27.4 28.7 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 122 118 140 153 147 146 144 147 159 162 165 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -54.2 -54.6 -54.6 -54.2 -53.7 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 5 6 7 3 2 0 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 58 55 49 45 42 41 38 36 36 32 26 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 9 8 6 4 4 4 4 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 11 4 12 17 25 4 -28 -46 -55 -60 -34 12 200 MB DIV 68 44 31 18 12 10 -4 0 -56 -36 -24 0 24 700-850 TADV 2 -2 1 1 -3 2 -5 -4 13 12 40 104 111 LAND (KM) 373 291 199 89 -40 -63 -361 -555 -587 -592 -531 -477 -532 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.8 22.8 23.9 25.1 27.2 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.9 29.8 31.5 34.4 LONG(DEG W) 112.9 112.6 112.4 112.1 111.4 109.3 106.5 104.1 103.5 103.2 102.2 99.8 95.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 14 14 13 7 1 4 9 18 27 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 4 15 6 3 3 3 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 9 CX,CY: 5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 1. -11. -27. -43. -54. -59. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -10. -12. -12. -11. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -6. -13. -27. -39. -49. -53. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.9 112.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962019 INVEST 10/13/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.57 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.80 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962019 INVEST 10/13/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##