* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962019 10/13/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 24 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 24 22 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 20 19 18 21 25 26 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 20 23 23 34 52 57 63 53 49 47 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -6 -2 1 1 1 0 -1 0 -5 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 156 180 188 201 222 245 252 251 255 270 307 329 320 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 26.5 26.2 25.2 28.8 28.2 28.2 28.5 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 129 126 116 155 148 147 148 153 157 159 162 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -54.3 -54.7 -55.0 -54.5 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 5 6 6 3 1 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 67 62 60 57 51 45 42 40 37 38 37 33 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 8 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 26 18 3 6 10 14 10 -6 -18 -57 -62 -61 -52 200 MB DIV 73 73 44 42 41 23 -7 -22 -11 -65 -46 -34 9 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 0 5 3 4 -8 -6 12 18 51 88 LAND (KM) 530 449 374 279 153 -6 -175 -466 -583 -498 -447 -386 -358 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.5 21.4 22.4 23.5 26.0 28.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.5 30.4 31.9 LONG(DEG W) 113.7 113.5 113.3 113.1 112.8 111.3 108.6 105.4 103.1 102.2 101.4 99.8 97.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 16 15 13 7 3 7 10 14 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 2 1 0 16 11 5 3 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 9 CX,CY: 4/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -9. -27. -44. -57. -62. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -13. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -12. -24. -38. -49. -53. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.6 113.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962019 INVEST 10/13/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962019 INVEST 10/13/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##