* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942019 11/16/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 31 31 31 33 36 36 35 34 34 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 31 31 31 33 36 36 35 34 34 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 17 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 7 9 10 14 12 16 24 26 34 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -2 0 1 3 4 7 5 0 1 SHEAR DIR 168 178 182 190 188 202 192 184 180 203 195 200 211 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 147 147 146 147 144 144 150 150 151 148 149 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 64 66 66 68 69 65 67 64 68 65 62 58 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -44 -51 -49 -54 -43 -37 -35 -25 -19 -2 11 -8 200 MB DIV -37 -50 -29 -2 20 45 32 48 94 56 49 45 65 700-850 TADV 6 5 6 5 4 0 -3 -2 1 1 -1 0 1 LAND (KM) 757 759 767 769 768 751 740 796 849 857 784 620 395 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.4 9.7 10.1 10.5 11.4 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.5 14.7 16.1 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 98.7 99.8 100.9 101.9 102.8 104.4 105.8 107.4 108.9 110.2 110.5 109.7 108.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 9 8 7 8 8 7 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 8 8 11 9 10 23 33 18 12 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 27. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.2 98.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 11/16/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 3.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.69 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.07 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.8% 13.4% 13.2% 0.0% 15.5% 15.7% 9.5% Logistic: 8.4% 36.0% 14.8% 8.0% 3.4% 6.4% 4.1% 18.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 18.8% 9.4% 7.1% 1.2% 7.3% 6.6% 9.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 11/16/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##