* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942019 11/15/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 22 22 24 27 31 32 32 32 32 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 22 22 24 27 31 32 32 32 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 21 19 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 5 4 4 9 11 18 14 18 20 23 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 2 6 6 2 SHEAR DIR 184 183 187 154 178 178 203 200 204 191 208 204 202 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 29.0 28.9 28.5 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 147 148 150 150 153 152 148 146 149 151 151 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 60 62 65 67 66 69 67 68 64 63 63 64 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -39 -47 -44 -48 -41 -30 -21 -26 -15 -13 6 20 200 MB DIV -34 -39 -29 -21 -19 24 53 57 33 53 60 58 60 700-850 TADV 2 4 6 5 5 2 -1 -3 -2 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 702 682 681 673 669 664 637 627 666 753 824 812 730 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.7 9.9 10.2 10.6 11.4 12.2 12.7 12.8 12.7 12.9 13.7 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 96.7 97.6 98.7 99.8 100.8 102.5 103.7 104.8 105.9 107.3 108.8 109.8 109.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 11 10 8 6 6 6 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 11 11 11 12 20 22 14 11 22 27 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 2. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.4 96.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 11/15/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.85 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -28.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.02 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.2% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 13.9% 15.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 13.2% 4.7% 2.1% 0.3% 2.3% 1.0% 11.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 9.5% 5.3% 0.7% 0.1% 5.4% 5.3% 3.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 11/15/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##