* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942019 11/15/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 16 17 18 22 27 31 34 35 36 36 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 16 17 18 22 27 31 34 35 36 36 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 3 1 2 4 9 10 15 14 17 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 3 5 2 0 -1 -2 0 4 7 8 SHEAR DIR 132 176 210 264 156 150 170 190 188 191 181 204 210 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 147 144 143 144 147 149 149 146 145 152 152 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 66 68 68 70 66 69 67 68 66 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 8 9 9 8 9 8 8 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -32 -30 -25 -38 -42 -40 -31 -24 -25 -31 -22 3 200 MB DIV -29 -38 -44 -40 -29 -25 23 68 57 58 64 47 55 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 2 4 5 1 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 673 707 734 737 736 743 745 736 700 706 769 818 783 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.9 10.6 11.3 12.0 12.3 12.3 12.8 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 94.8 95.6 96.5 97.6 98.7 100.8 102.5 103.9 104.8 105.7 106.9 108.5 109.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 11 11 10 8 7 5 4 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 13 17 13 10 20 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 26. 30. 34. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. 2. 7. 11. 14. 15. 16. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.9 94.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 11/15/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.92 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -36.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 17.7% 6.2% 2.6% 0.3% 2.7% 1.2% 19.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 5.9% 2.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.9% 0.4% 6.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 11/15/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##