* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942019 09/28/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 33 32 34 32 31 29 25 23 23 19 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 33 32 34 32 31 29 25 23 24 26 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 29 26 23 21 20 18 21 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 15 21 19 17 14 15 22 30 24 34 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 5 2 4 0 -4 -1 3 4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 57 71 76 89 95 103 105 125 201 214 217 225 244 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 29.3 28.4 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 158 160 161 162 165 158 157 154 149 155 148 157 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -51.1 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 9 7 6 8 5 5 2 2 1 3 0 700-500 MB RH 79 79 81 79 79 72 61 52 40 34 33 33 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 15 14 12 10 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 100 90 93 95 96 121 75 48 49 26 41 16 12 200 MB DIV 112 129 125 97 96 82 28 38 9 25 16 14 24 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -16 -13 -8 -11 -3 0 0 -2 5 0 8 LAND (KM) 239 186 134 117 71 48 195 41 10 39 7 -74 -121 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 11 10 12 15 14 15 12 4 4 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 22 22 22 34 16 16 18 19 28 16 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -18. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -9. -13. -17. -18. -18. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 2. 4. 2. 2. -1. -5. -7. -7. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 100.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 09/28/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.12 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.77 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 20.7% 18.1% 13.4% 0.0% 17.9% 19.0% 17.9% Logistic: 1.3% 9.9% 3.1% 1.8% 0.4% 7.6% 8.0% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 3.2% 10.7% 7.4% 5.1% 0.1% 8.5% 9.0% 6.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 09/28/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##