* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942019 09/28/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 33 33 34 37 33 31 28 31 35 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 33 33 29 35 31 30 26 29 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 29 26 27 25 23 21 21 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 22 15 16 18 18 16 16 13 9 9 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 2 4 4 4 0 -2 0 2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 63 61 69 69 73 96 94 72 97 127 102 132 220 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.8 29.9 30.3 29.8 29.1 29.3 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 159 160 161 165 165 167 161 153 156 164 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 7 8 7 7 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 80 78 78 81 80 79 75 68 61 53 46 40 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 17 16 15 12 10 10 6 5 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 104 102 85 81 78 81 107 57 61 31 34 15 48 200 MB DIV 118 115 124 113 86 101 86 37 36 10 33 14 18 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -10 -12 -11 -8 -8 -5 -2 -2 1 0 3 LAND (KM) 264 217 174 151 128 27 -30 105 60 108 23 7 45 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 11 12 14 11 7 5 4 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 22 22 22 21 30 24 29 25 17 22 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 456 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -16. -17. -21. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 7. 3. 1. -2. 1. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.7 98.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 09/28/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.04 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.76 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.7% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 29.3% Logistic: 0.4% 7.2% 2.1% 1.3% 0.3% 7.0% 17.8% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.1% 9.4% 6.6% 0.4% 0.1% 2.3% 5.9% 10.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 09/28/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##