* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942019 09/28/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 36 34 35 32 31 32 31 30 28 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 36 34 29 29 29 26 26 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 32 33 32 30 27 29 27 23 25 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 24 24 20 20 20 16 14 14 11 23 30 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 5 2 3 3 0 4 0 0 4 3 1 SHEAR DIR 65 63 63 72 64 82 95 88 103 160 208 223 226 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.4 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 155 157 159 162 157 167 167 166 159 145 143 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.1 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 8 6 9 6 7 3 4 1 3 700-500 MB RH 78 80 79 79 81 82 79 71 58 47 39 34 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 17 18 17 12 10 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 109 107 101 85 79 73 111 83 50 50 39 44 9 200 MB DIV 157 140 143 133 112 77 100 38 44 25 31 16 3 700-850 TADV 2 -11 -9 -5 -11 -10 -9 -1 0 0 -4 9 -4 LAND (KM) 319 273 228 186 145 62 -44 66 68 -23 -49 -139 -205 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 7 10 14 14 14 14 12 10 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 20 21 23 22 19 29 26 29 22 13 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. 1. 0. -3. -7. -14. -18. -18. -18. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 5. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 99.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 09/28/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 137.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.84 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 2.1% 9.7% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 7.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 3.2% 0.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 09/28/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##