* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942019 09/27/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 39 42 45 49 51 50 43 42 41 41 36 V (KT) LAND 30 35 39 42 45 49 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 36 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 23 24 25 21 18 13 14 16 7 17 30 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 5 4 3 6 1 6 3 4 8 14 4 SHEAR DIR 82 67 59 66 69 69 105 100 83 132 189 221 230 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.5 28.4 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 154 156 160 150 156 152 150 149 153 153 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -51.7 -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 7 7 9 8 9 6 6 5 2 700-500 MB RH 76 78 78 78 78 82 81 77 67 57 46 42 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 18 19 18 18 16 13 9 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 93 106 96 87 78 78 84 118 54 32 0 14 -21 200 MB DIV 134 168 140 128 124 95 115 52 5 45 27 45 48 700-850 TADV 10 -1 -10 -8 -13 -14 -5 -4 -2 8 8 21 17 LAND (KM) 327 353 352 301 231 33 -140 -259 -172 -238 -413 -763 -936 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.2 13.3 13.8 14.5 16.5 18.8 21.2 23.6 26.0 28.9 32.4 35.9 LONG(DEG W) 99.2 99.6 99.8 99.8 99.8 99.9 100.9 102.7 104.5 106.0 106.1 104.5 101.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 6 8 11 14 15 14 13 17 21 22 HEAT CONTENT 22 25 27 24 22 22 11 17 17 3 6 15 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -12. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -2. -7. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 15. 19. 21. 20. 13. 12. 11. 11. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 99.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 09/27/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 138.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.91 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 7.3% 1.9% 1.1% 0.2% 8.2% 35.5% 12.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.3% 3.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 2.8% 11.9% 4.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 09/27/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##