* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942019 08/16/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 23 21 21 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 23 21 21 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 20 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 9 9 5 12 13 19 22 23 21 18 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -1 0 0 0 -3 -1 -4 -2 -2 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 228 239 254 279 263 290 260 266 249 248 239 239 236 SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.6 26.3 25.9 26.1 25.8 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.8 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 130 127 122 123 118 117 115 116 117 120 122 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 62 60 59 58 55 53 53 53 50 49 43 44 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 7 26 29 29 30 21 16 19 16 12 -13 -18 -43 200 MB DIV 6 -3 -11 1 -1 -16 -4 -11 -11 -33 -18 -27 -14 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 0 1 3 0 1 1 2 3 6 3 LAND (KM) 2238 2118 1997 1887 1776 1617 1508 1445 1392 1340 1246 1143 1021 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.0 17.3 17.6 18.0 18.9 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 133.8 134.9 136.0 137.0 138.0 139.4 140.4 141.0 141.5 142.0 142.9 143.9 145.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 7 4 3 2 3 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -4. -7. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -15. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.8 133.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 08/16/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 08/16/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##