* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942019 08/15/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 25 24 23 22 23 22 19 16 16 17 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 25 24 23 22 23 22 19 16 16 17 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 21 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 9 9 8 11 13 18 17 22 17 14 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -2 0 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -3 0 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 246 236 252 260 286 297 290 264 263 250 259 250 246 SST (C) 26.8 26.3 26.2 26.4 25.9 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.5 25.4 25.5 25.8 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 126 128 123 123 120 118 115 114 116 119 120 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 59 56 54 53 52 50 48 46 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 1 10 29 31 28 34 19 28 8 13 0 -25 -37 200 MB DIV 3 10 10 0 13 -5 -6 -22 -4 -39 -20 -42 -12 700-850 TADV 0 0 -4 -1 1 3 2 2 3 4 3 4 4 LAND (KM) 2192 2244 2123 2002 1880 1691 1560 1465 1393 1320 1238 1136 1026 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.0 17.3 17.6 18.0 18.9 19.7 20.2 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.8 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 132.7 133.7 134.8 135.9 137.0 138.7 139.9 140.8 141.5 142.2 143.0 144.0 145.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 8 6 4 3 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 6 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -3. -5. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -6. -9. -9. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.8 132.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 08/15/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 08/15/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##