* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942019 08/15/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 26 27 30 28 26 23 22 22 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 26 27 30 28 26 23 22 22 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 23 21 20 18 17 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 8 11 8 6 12 15 18 23 22 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -6 -3 0 0 0 -4 -3 -3 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 1 282 241 245 283 286 300 260 271 253 261 269 302 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.5 25.4 25.6 25.9 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 127 128 130 123 121 118 115 114 117 120 120 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.8 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 62 60 61 60 59 55 54 54 53 51 51 49 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 8 6 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 3 3 10 28 27 25 17 14 6 5 11 -3 -18 200 MB DIV 3 3 4 9 6 6 -13 -8 -10 -16 -19 -8 -23 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -5 -3 2 2 1 1 3 4 3 5 LAND (KM) 2161 2231 2206 2087 1955 1720 1552 1434 1351 1279 1196 1106 1006 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.3 18.2 19.2 19.9 20.2 20.5 20.6 20.9 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 132.0 133.0 134.1 135.2 136.4 138.5 140.0 141.1 141.9 142.6 143.4 144.3 145.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 12 10 8 5 4 4 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 6 1 2 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. -1. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 5. 3. 1. -2. -3. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.4 132.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 08/15/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 142.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 08/15/19 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING