* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942019 08/15/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 24 25 25 26 27 24 22 21 20 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 24 25 25 26 27 24 22 21 20 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 22 21 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 4 3 5 8 10 10 14 16 18 16 12 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -5 -3 -5 -1 0 -1 -3 0 -2 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 67 75 339 307 246 281 311 305 267 269 259 298 312 SST (C) 26.7 26.3 26.3 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.9 25.7 25.4 25.5 25.8 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 131 126 127 124 124 123 123 120 115 116 118 121 121 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 63 61 60 60 59 58 54 53 51 50 47 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 1 17 12 6 10 27 18 10 -1 -4 -13 -10 -28 200 MB DIV 5 10 4 -1 -5 -2 8 -9 -22 -28 -47 -32 -24 700-850 TADV 3 -1 -3 -1 -1 -1 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 LAND (KM) 2006 2051 2121 2202 2161 1901 1659 1466 1319 1215 1122 1048 956 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.5 18.0 18.9 19.6 20.2 20.3 20.3 20.2 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 130.2 131.1 132.1 133.2 134.4 136.8 139.0 140.8 142.2 143.2 144.1 144.8 145.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 12 10 8 6 4 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 7 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.5 130.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 08/15/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.3% 1.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 4.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 08/15/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##