* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942019 08/14/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 28 28 29 27 26 23 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 28 28 29 27 26 23 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 23 22 20 19 18 17 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 6 3 4 9 11 8 12 16 15 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -5 -1 -3 -2 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 53 71 74 353 293 262 316 311 290 263 262 286 284 SST (C) 27.0 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.1 26.5 26.1 25.9 25.6 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 130 128 129 125 129 125 122 118 114 114 113 115 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -54.8 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 61 62 60 59 58 57 53 53 53 53 52 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 1 3 17 15 12 19 10 12 -3 -1 -9 -9 -26 200 MB DIV 12 14 13 2 1 -25 0 1 -12 -3 -11 -40 -13 700-850 TADV 1 1 -1 -3 -2 -6 1 1 4 0 2 2 2 LAND (KM) 2004 2054 2106 2177 2242 1995 1744 1545 1393 1298 1259 1252 1248 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.4 18.0 18.8 19.6 20.1 20.6 21.0 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 129.7 130.7 131.6 132.6 133.7 136.0 138.3 140.1 141.5 142.4 142.8 142.9 143.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 10 11 12 11 9 6 3 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 11 7 4 3 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.0 129.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 08/14/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 2.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.68 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.67 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.5% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 3.9% 2.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.8% 4.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 08/14/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##