* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942019 08/14/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 27 29 29 31 32 31 31 30 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 27 29 29 31 32 31 31 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 23 22 20 19 18 17 16 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 11 7 5 8 11 9 12 14 19 16 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 -2 -4 0 0 0 0 -4 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 41 51 58 55 353 293 290 315 300 244 247 287 327 SST (C) 26.9 27.1 26.9 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.6 25.5 25.6 25.2 25.7 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 133 128 126 123 120 118 119 114 118 120 120 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.9 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 62 60 57 55 51 50 49 47 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 9 10 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -11 -11 4 8 4 21 7 1 -11 -15 -31 -42 200 MB DIV 33 13 7 16 17 9 -16 3 -8 -13 -9 -50 -17 700-850 TADV -2 0 2 -1 -3 -4 0 3 3 2 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 1930 1958 1982 2025 2087 2189 1915 1676 1476 1315 1219 1156 1104 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.7 18.5 19.5 20.3 21.1 21.6 22.0 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 128.2 129.0 129.8 130.7 131.7 134.1 136.6 138.8 140.7 142.3 143.3 144.0 144.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 12 13 10 10 6 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 23. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.5 128.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 08/14/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 2.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.49 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.27 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.85 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.7% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.4% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 08/14/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##