* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942019 08/14/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 35 38 41 41 42 42 38 35 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 35 38 41 41 42 42 38 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 24 23 22 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 12 13 9 6 10 11 5 7 16 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 2 1 0 -4 -1 1 0 0 -4 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 51 40 36 49 43 328 288 298 333 288 207 213 214 SST (C) 27.4 27.0 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.0 25.6 25.7 25.4 25.3 25.6 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 133 135 135 133 132 124 120 120 116 114 117 123 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 59 58 57 57 57 55 52 51 47 48 47 46 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 11 11 12 11 10 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -10 7 -5 -16 -19 -2 0 15 6 1 -1 -10 -30 200 MB DIV 78 79 56 19 25 21 17 -19 4 -6 13 -16 -9 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -6 -3 -1 -7 -6 -6 5 5 5 2 5 LAND (KM) 1919 1959 1991 2019 2053 2168 2119 1849 1606 1434 1309 1221 1142 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.8 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.0 19.0 19.8 20.4 21.0 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 127.1 127.9 128.8 129.7 130.6 132.5 134.8 137.3 139.5 141.1 142.3 143.2 144.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 10 12 12 10 8 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 14 14 11 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 3. 2. 0. 0. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 16. 16. 17. 17. 13. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.6 127.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 08/14/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 08/14/19 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING