* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942019 08/13/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 31 35 39 40 41 43 44 44 44 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 31 35 39 40 41 43 44 44 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 26 25 25 25 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 7 4 9 10 4 5 12 11 9 5 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 1 0 -3 0 -3 0 -4 -1 -4 -8 SHEAR DIR 48 35 16 26 45 68 282 287 320 342 280 221 230 SST (C) 27.8 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.0 25.9 25.9 25.5 25.5 26.1 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 134 134 136 134 132 124 123 123 118 118 124 122 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 57 58 58 58 57 57 54 55 50 49 47 47 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -8 3 19 13 0 11 14 27 19 7 -9 -10 -35 200 MB DIV 84 99 87 58 22 30 12 -18 -11 3 17 -13 -14 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -8 -8 0 -4 0 -11 4 5 8 3 9 LAND (KM) 1884 1931 1961 2012 2044 2143 2173 1915 1644 1426 1235 1083 955 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.1 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.4 19.2 20.0 20.7 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 126.6 127.5 128.4 129.4 130.3 132.2 134.3 136.7 139.2 141.2 143.0 144.5 145.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 11 12 12 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 11 12 14 12 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 10. 14. 15. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 126.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 08/13/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.61 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.6% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.6% 16.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 6.4% 6.5% 1.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 9.0% 6.7% 0.3% 0.4% 5.7% 5.7% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 08/13/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##