* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942019 08/13/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 36 41 44 44 44 44 44 42 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 36 41 44 44 44 44 44 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 26 24 23 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 12 10 11 9 6 5 12 4 9 15 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -4 -2 -1 -1 -3 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 41 46 47 39 34 51 347 278 285 314 285 227 254 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.4 27.0 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.1 26.0 25.6 25.6 25.3 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 137 133 134 133 133 125 124 119 119 115 114 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 59 60 60 59 58 58 56 55 55 53 53 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -12 -12 10 5 -11 0 6 11 5 -3 -15 -30 200 MB DIV 56 69 87 81 55 34 13 2 -22 0 9 -11 -26 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -5 -6 -5 1 -5 -2 -7 2 5 2 4 LAND (KM) 1831 1874 1919 1959 1983 2044 2147 2211 1969 1736 1561 1414 1307 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.3 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.7 18.6 19.5 20.4 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 125.5 126.3 127.1 127.9 128.7 130.3 132.0 134.0 136.2 138.3 139.9 141.3 142.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 10 11 10 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 13 12 14 12 8 0 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 16. 19. 19. 19. 19. 19. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 125.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 08/13/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.36 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.1% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 14.7% 15.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 4.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.0% 5.6% 0.1% 0.1% 5.0% 5.3% 1.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 08/13/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##