* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942019 08/13/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 34 38 44 48 50 50 51 52 51 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 34 38 44 48 50 50 51 52 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 29 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 16 16 13 12 3 5 10 7 6 4 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -4 -1 -4 -1 -4 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 42 41 42 41 38 47 13 280 238 258 198 207 213 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.3 26.6 26.6 25.9 25.7 25.3 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 144 138 137 139 137 130 130 123 120 116 120 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.3 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 58 60 59 61 60 57 56 56 56 55 54 50 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 -8 -18 -14 -3 -15 3 2 21 19 15 1 -10 200 MB DIV 74 48 63 82 80 30 25 20 11 -9 -5 2 -39 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -7 -6 -5 0 -4 -2 -8 -4 1 2 4 LAND (KM) 1831 1886 1928 1967 1997 2074 2149 2248 2014 1759 1540 1351 1204 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.3 16.1 16.8 17.5 18.4 19.4 20.3 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 125.0 125.9 126.7 127.5 128.2 129.9 131.6 133.7 135.8 138.1 140.1 141.9 143.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 18 17 19 18 14 3 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 19. 23. 25. 25. 26. 27. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 125.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 08/13/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.25 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 137.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.8% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 15.2% 16.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 6.8% 3.1% 0.7% 1.0% 0.6% 1.1% 7.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 7.9% 6.2% 0.2% 0.4% 5.3% 5.9% 2.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 08/13/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##