* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942019 08/13/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 35 40 46 52 53 53 52 53 53 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 35 40 46 52 53 53 52 53 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 27 28 28 29 31 32 32 31 31 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 17 16 15 12 11 5 4 9 6 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 -1 -1 -4 -5 -2 -2 -1 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 59 46 47 45 48 53 59 358 234 241 162 195 174 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.7 27.3 27.5 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.5 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 146 142 138 140 137 139 129 126 123 118 115 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 57 57 58 57 59 58 57 55 55 55 53 53 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 11 -3 -8 -4 5 -11 0 8 23 22 16 -5 200 MB DIV 72 83 63 60 70 70 20 17 15 6 5 6 -7 700-850 TADV -6 -9 -7 -5 -3 0 -2 -7 -2 -6 -2 0 4 LAND (KM) 1779 1839 1894 1937 1984 2037 2114 2218 2137 1905 1659 1455 1304 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.4 15.0 15.7 16.3 17.1 17.8 18.9 19.9 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 124.2 125.2 126.1 126.9 127.7 129.1 130.8 132.6 134.7 136.8 139.0 140.9 142.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 19 18 18 20 17 12 3 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 25. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 15. 21. 27. 28. 28. 27. 28. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 124.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 08/13/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.30 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.5% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5% 15.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 10.4% 5.4% 1.3% 1.7% 1.0% 1.3% 8.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 9.4% 7.3% 0.4% 0.6% 5.5% 5.6% 2.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 08/13/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##