* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942019 08/12/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 41 48 55 57 57 57 57 56 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 41 48 55 57 57 57 57 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 31 34 37 39 40 39 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 9 14 16 11 8 4 6 7 7 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -2 -2 -2 -5 -1 -4 -3 -3 0 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 73 75 68 68 68 77 24 26 296 263 301 354 17 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.1 27.8 27.2 27.0 27.2 26.6 26.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 144 143 142 144 142 136 134 137 130 126 126 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 58 57 56 57 58 57 58 56 56 56 53 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 12 17 4 2 7 14 0 -10 0 -1 12 -5 200 MB DIV 87 95 99 62 70 72 49 32 18 0 -6 6 18 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -6 -4 -2 -1 2 -2 3 -8 -3 -10 1 LAND (KM) 1927 2010 2089 2148 2201 2255 2323 2299 2072 1838 1582 1335 1112 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.6 14.3 15.2 15.9 16.5 17.2 18.1 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 125.2 126.4 127.5 128.4 129.2 130.5 132.1 133.6 135.6 137.7 140.0 142.2 144.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 8 7 9 9 10 11 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 17 19 21 20 13 8 11 13 6 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 16. 23. 30. 32. 32. 32. 32. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 125.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 08/12/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.61 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.61 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.4% 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.0% 20.3% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 18.4% 14.1% 4.4% 3.5% 1.7% 1.1% 5.7% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 13.8% 11.7% 1.5% 1.2% 6.9% 7.2% 1.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 08/12/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##