* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942019 06/30/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 42 45 51 62 73 83 85 87 83 75 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 42 45 51 62 73 83 85 87 83 75 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 42 43 46 50 58 66 72 73 68 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 14 14 15 6 6 9 1 5 6 6 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 8 8 4 0 -2 -6 -1 -4 -2 4 9 SHEAR DIR 328 308 303 309 310 333 134 123 117 219 246 239 235 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.7 28.9 28.1 27.7 27.1 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 160 161 164 155 146 142 135 136 134 133 126 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 74 72 71 70 70 67 68 66 60 57 55 53 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 14 15 17 21 24 27 29 31 30 27 850 MB ENV VOR 1 3 11 12 3 0 21 21 35 39 54 52 48 200 MB DIV 111 142 159 143 93 88 120 160 167 92 78 56 46 700-850 TADV -20 -16 -14 -14 -12 -7 -5 -1 -3 0 7 6 4 LAND (KM) 1042 1087 1131 1197 1289 1352 1465 1577 1685 1803 1914 1997 2068 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.4 11.7 12.6 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.6 111.0 112.5 114.0 116.8 119.5 121.8 123.8 125.7 127.5 129.2 130.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 15 15 14 12 11 9 9 9 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 42 53 33 26 26 17 10 10 4 4 4 6 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 20. 22. 20. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 10. 16. 27. 38. 48. 50. 52. 48. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.2 108.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 06/30/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.29 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 129.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.86 5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.32 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 45% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 29.6% 26.2% 20.3% 12.8% 25.2% 39.6% 44.6% Logistic: 4.6% 25.4% 14.2% 7.9% 1.0% 8.9% 7.9% 6.3% Bayesian: 4.7% 21.3% 12.4% 2.3% 0.0% 2.4% 4.3% 0.4% Consensus: 8.0% 25.4% 17.6% 10.2% 4.6% 12.1% 17.3% 17.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 4.0% 4.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 06/30/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##