* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942019 06/30/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 35 38 44 54 65 72 75 78 76 73 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 35 38 44 54 65 72 75 78 76 73 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 33 35 40 45 51 55 57 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 11 17 13 12 2 9 6 2 4 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 7 7 7 8 0 0 -5 -7 -4 0 3 7 SHEAR DIR 330 327 304 302 308 317 136 143 139 182 214 220 202 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 28.5 27.9 26.8 26.9 27.1 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 159 160 160 162 151 144 132 132 134 130 131 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -52.5 -52.1 -52.7 -51.9 -52.6 -51.6 -52.0 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 74 74 71 68 70 69 67 68 63 59 57 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 15 18 21 24 25 27 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 4 4 8 12 12 6 10 15 30 36 56 53 60 200 MB DIV 109 113 139 158 119 71 114 98 143 98 63 29 52 700-850 TADV -15 -21 -15 -14 -11 -11 -4 -1 0 -1 3 4 6 LAND (KM) 1004 1021 1065 1119 1183 1306 1372 1489 1582 1691 1799 1887 1965 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.4 12.2 13.1 13.8 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.5 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 106.7 108.0 109.4 110.8 112.3 115.1 117.9 120.4 122.5 124.3 126.0 127.6 129.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 15 15 14 13 12 9 9 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 38 42 53 35 27 24 13 9 3 3 3 2 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 14. 16. 19. 19. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 19. 29. 40. 47. 50. 53. 51. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.8 106.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 06/30/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.29 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 127.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.85 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.35 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 28.9% 24.4% 0.0% 0.0% 22.8% 28.7% 0.0% Logistic: 11.3% 51.4% 31.0% 22.2% 3.3% 23.5% 13.5% 16.5% Bayesian: 2.6% 26.7% 20.8% 5.4% 0.0% 4.2% 5.1% 0.7% Consensus: 4.6% 35.6% 25.4% 9.2% 1.1% 16.8% 15.8% 5.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 06/30/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##